Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


Archaeologists unearth an ancient Middle Kingdom Egyptian tomb in Luxor

Archaeologists unearth an ancient Middle Kingdom Egyptian tomb in Luxor
Updated 02 November 2024
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Archaeologists unearth an ancient Middle Kingdom Egyptian tomb in Luxor

Archaeologists unearth an ancient Middle Kingdom Egyptian tomb in Luxor
  • Some items such as jewelry in women’s burials were found intact, including a finely crafted necklace with 30 amethyst beads

CAIRO: Archaeologists from Egypt and the United States unearthed an ancient tomb with 11 sealed burials near the famed city of Luxor, Egyptian authorities said.
Egypt’s Tourism and Antiquities Ministry said in a statement Friday the tomb, which dates back to the Middle Kingdom (1938 B.C.-1630 B.C.), was found in the South Asasif necropolis, next to the Temple of Hatshepsut on the Nile’s West Bank in Luxor.
The joint Egyptian-American mission excavating the necropolis found coffins for men, women and children, suggesting that it was a family tomb used for generations during the 12th Dynasty and the beginning of the 13th Dynasty, said Mohamed Ismail Khaled, Secretary-General of the Supreme Council of Antiquities in Egypt.
He said ancient floods destroyed most of the burials’ wooden coffins and linen wrappings.
However, some items such as jewelry in women’s burials were found intact, including a finely crafted necklace with 30 amethyst beads and two cylindrical agate beads framing a hippo-head amulet, according to the statement.
Catherine Blakeney, chief American archaeologist with the mission, said they found two copper mirrors, one with a lotus-shaped handle, and the second with a unique design of Hathor, goddess of the sky, women, fertility and love in ancient Egypt.
The discovery came as Egypt has doubled efforts to attract more tourists, a significant source of foreign currency for the cash-strapped North African country. Tourism, which depends heavily on Egypt’s rich Pharaonic artifacts, suffered a long downturn after the political turmoil and violence that followed a 2011 uprising.
Last month, the Grand Egyptian Museum, a mega project near the famed Giza Pyramids, opened 12 halls exhibiting Pharaonic artifacts for visitors as a trial ahead of the yet-unannounced official opening.


Israel army says intercepted three drones over Red Sea

Israel army says intercepted three drones over Red Sea
Updated 02 November 2024
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Israel army says intercepted three drones over Red Sea

Israel army says intercepted three drones over Red Sea
  • Iraqi pro-Iran groups say carried out drone attack on Israel’s Eilat

Jerusalem: The Israeli military said on Saturday it had intercepted three drones launched from the east over the Red Sea, without specifying where they came from.
“A short while ago, three UAVs that were launched from the east were intercepted over the Red Sea.... the UAVs were intercepted prior to crossing into Israeli territory,” the military said in a statement.

Iraqi pro-Iran groups say carried out drone attack

A coalition of pro-Iran groups in Iraq said it carried out four drone attacks on the Israeli resort of Eilat on Saturday, after Israel said it intercepted three drones approaching from the east.
In a statement, the Islamic Resistance in Iraq it was behind the attacks on what it called “four vital targets” in the resort on Israel’s Red Sea coast, all conducted within one hour.


Jordan warns of increasing regional unrest and vows to protect its airspace, borders

Jordan warns of increasing regional unrest and vows to protect its airspace, borders
Updated 02 November 2024
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Jordan warns of increasing regional unrest and vows to protect its airspace, borders

Jordan warns of increasing regional unrest and vows to protect its airspace, borders

CAIRO: Jordan on Saturday warned against intercepting its airspace and the infringement of its borders as unrest increases in the region. 

Jordan reaffirms its “rejection of attempts by some regional parties to violate its airspace, especially by launching drones that some of which have entered the Kingdom’s airspace and parts had fallen inside Jordanian territory,” said government spokesperson Mohammad Momani according to Petra news agency.  

The spokesperson pointed out that two incidents of this sort had occurred recently in the governorates of Irbid and Jerash, describing it as “a threat that Jordan was dealing with within the military rules of engagement, and that it was taking all necessary measures to confront these violations.”

The minister warned of “increasing regional unrest, reiterating that Jordan will not be a conflict zone for any party, and will not allow warplanes, missiles or drones to pass through its airspace.”

 


US-Israeli settlers hope to see a second Trump term

US-Israeli settlers hope to see a second Trump term
Updated 02 November 2024
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US-Israeli settlers hope to see a second Trump term

US-Israeli settlers hope to see a second Trump term
  • Recent polls show that a majority of Israelis dream of the days when the former president inhabited the White House
  • Donald Trump prioritized Israel during his previous term, moving the American embassy to Jerusalem among his other actions

SHILOH, Palestinian Territories: Less than a week before the United States presidential election, Americans living in settlements in the Israeli-occupied West Bank know exactly who they want to win: Donald Trump.
Recent polls show that a majority of Israelis, 66 percent according to one conducted by Israel’s Channel 12 News, dream of the days when the former president inhabited the White House.
Trump prioritized Israel during his previous term, moving the American embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights and helping to normalize ties between Israel and several Arab states under the so-called Abraham Accords.
Now, many Israelis believe Trump will offer yet more support as the country battles Iran-backed militant groups in Gaza and Lebanon, as well as Iran itself.
“I’m proud to tell you that I voted for President Trump,” Eliana Passentin, 50, who moved to Israel from San Francisco as a child, said.
For Passentin, a mother and grandmother, the stakes are higher than for the average Israeli.
For the past 29 years she has lived in Eli, part of a cluster of Israeli settlements located in the heart of the West Bank.
The area has been occupied by Israel since 1967, but it could become Palestinian sovereign territory under a two-state solution favored by the international community.
Passentin is employed by the local regional council.
She recalls how successive administrations in Washington pressured Israel to stop expanding settlements in an attempt to mediate peace between Israelis and Palestinians and reach a two-state solution.
“United States of America, our greatest ally, we thank you, but please understand we know how to run our country,” Passentin said.
In her backyard, with sweeping views of the entire area, Passentin points to nearby Israeli and Palestinian towns.
“I don’t think that Israelis living here are an obstacle to peace. On the contrary, I think that the Israelis living here are building the region for everyone,” she said.
She said the region was a hub for Jews in Biblical times, and claims that under international agreements Israelis have a right to live here.
International law says otherwise, however, and Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank are considered illegal by the international community.
Among Israelis who vote for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ruling right-wing coalition, 93 percent support Trump’s candidacy, according to the Channel 12 poll.
“Things have changed since October 7,” Passentin said, referring to Hamas’s attack on southern Israel on that day in 2023 which sparked the war in Gaza.
“Now it’s a whole different story — it’s not about Judea and Samaria, it’s about Israel,” she said, using the Biblical terms for the southern and northern West Bank.
“We have a right to defend ourselves... and I think President Trump respects and understands that.”
Gedaliah Blum, 45, a neighbor who was born in New Jersey, also said he voted for Trump based on the question of “what kind of future we want to have here in Israel.”
“Do we want a future that has an embargo threatened on Israel every time we defend ourselves?” he asked.
“Trump is not going to pressure Israel to sign a ceasefire that will let Hamas remain in power in Gaza. They’re not going to push Israel to sign a peace agreement with Lebanon that will allow Hezbollah to remain in power.”
With Kamala Harris in the Oval Office, Israel will be under constant “pressure,” Blum said.
“We’re going to get pressure, we’re going to get embargoes, we’re going to get Iranian money in their pockets. It’s not in the best interest of Israel.”
In the nearby settlement of Shiloh, where an estimated 20 percent of residents hold US citizenship, New York-born Yisrael Medad, 77, said he believed Trump would be good not only for America but also for “America’s friends abroad, including Israel.”
“I think the policies that a Republican candidate such as Trump are promoting are most beneficial for the administration, Congress and the American people,” he said.
On Israel, Medad said he believed that Trump would treat Israel more “fairly in terms of not denying its rights to defend itself... not only in a physical sense but also on the ideological front.”
Referring to a recent incident at a Democratic campaign rally in which Harris did not push back against a demonstrator who said Israel was committing a “genocide” in Gaza, Medad said: “That’s not the type of candidate I want in the White House.”


Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone

Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone
Updated 02 November 2024
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Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone

Israel’s path of destruction in southern Lebanon raises fears of an attempt to create a buffer zone
  • Israeli warplanes and ground forces have blasted a trail of destruction through southern Lebanon the past month
  • More than 1 million people have fled bombardment, emptying much of the south

BEIRUT: Perched on a hilltop a short walk from the Israeli border, the tiny southern Lebanese village of Ramyah has almost been wiped off the map. In a neighboring village, satellite photos show a similar scene: a hill once covered with houses, now reduced to a gray smear of rubble.
Israeli warplanes and ground forces have blasted a trail of destruction through southern Lebanon the past month. The aim, Israel says, is to debilitate the Hezbollah militant group, push it away from the border and end more than a year of Hezbollah fire into northern Israel.
Even United Nations peacekeepers and Lebanese troops in the south have come under fire from Israeli forces, raising questions over whether they can remain in place.
More than 1 million people have fled bombardment, emptying much of the south. Some experts say Israel may be aiming to create a depopulated buffer zone, a strategy it has already deployed along its border with Gaza.
Some conditions for such a zone appear already in place, according to an Associated Press analysis of satellite imagery and data collected by mapping experts that show the breadth of destruction across 11 villages next to the border.
The Israeli military has said the bombardment is necessary to destroy Hezbollah tunnels and other infrastructure it says the group embedded within towns. The blasts have also destroyed homes, neighborhoods and sometimes entire villages, where families have lived for generations.
Israel says it aims to push Hezbollah far enough back that its citizens can return safely to homes in the north, but Israeli officials acknowledge they don’t have a concrete plan for ensuring Hezbollah stays away from the border long term. That is a key focus in attempts by the United States to broker a ceasefire.
Orna Mizrahi, a senior researcher at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said Israel’s immediate aim is not to create a buffer zone — but that might change.
“Maybe we’ll have no other choice than staying there until we have an arrangement that promises us that Hezbollah will not come back to the zone,” she said.
A path of destruction
Troops pushed into southern Lebanon on Oct. 1, backed by heavy bombardment that has intensified since.
Using satellite images provided by Planet Labs PBC, AP identified a line of 11 villages — all within 4 miles (6.5 kilometers) of Lebanon’s border with Israel — that have been severely damaged in the past month, either by strikes or detonations of explosives laid by Israeli soldiers.
Analysis found the most intense damage in the south came in villages closest to the border, with between 100 and 500 buildings likely destroyed or damaged in each, according to Corey Scher of CUNY Graduate Center and Jamon Van Der Hoek of Oregon State University, experts in damage assessments.
In Ramyah, barely a single structure still stands on the village’s central hilltop, after a controlled detonation that Israeli soldiers showed themselves carrying out in videos posted on social media. In the next town over, Aita Al-Shaab — a village with strong Hezbollah influence — bombardment turned the hilltop with the highest concentration of buildings into a gray wasteland of rubble.
In other villages, the damage is more selective. In some, bombardment tore scars through blocks of houses; in others, certain homes were crushed while their neighbors remained intact.
Another controlled detonation leveled much of the village of Odeissah, with an explosion so strong it set off earthquake alerts in Israel.
In videos of the blast, Lubnan Baalbaki, conductor of the Lebanese Philharmonic Orchestra, watched in disbelief as his parents’ house — containing the art collection and a library his father had built up for years — was destroyed.
“This house was a project and a dream for both of my parents,” he told the AP. His parents’ graves in the garden are now lost.
When asked whether its intention was to create a buffer zone, Israel’s military said it was “conducting localized, limited, targeted raids based on precise intelligence” against Hezbollah targets. It said Hezbollah had “deliberately embedded” weapons in homes and villages.
Israeli journalist Danny Kushmaro even helped blow up a home that the military said was being used to store Hezbollah ammunition. In a television segment, Kushmaro and soldiers counted down before they pressed a button, setting off a massive explosion.
Videos posted online by Israel’s military and individual soldiers show Israeli troops planting flags on Lebanese soil. Still, Israel has not built any bases or managed to hold a permanent presence in southern Lebanon. Troops appear to move back and forth across the border, sometimes under heavy fire from Hezbollah.
October has been the deadliest month of 2024 for the Israeli military, with around 60 soldiers killed.
Attacks on UN peacekeeping troops and the Lebanese Army
The bombardment has been punctuated by Israeli attacks on UN troops and the Lebanese Army — forces which, under international law, are supposed to keep the peace in the area. Israel has long complained that their presence has not prevented Hezbollah from building up its infrastructure across the south.
Israel denies targeting either force.
The Lebanese military has said at least 11 of its soldiers were killed in eight Israeli strikes, either at their positions or while assisting evacuations.
The peacekeeping force, known as UNIFIL, said its forces and infrastructure have been harmed at least 30 times since late September, blaming Israeli military fire or actions for about 20 of them, “with seven being clearly deliberate.”
A rocket likely fired by Hezbollah or an allied group hit UNIFIL’s headquarters in Naqoura on Tuesday, causing some minor injuries, said UNIFIL spokesperson Andrea Tenenti.
UNIFIL has refused to leave southern Lebanon, despite calls by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for them to go.
Experts warn that could change if peacekeepers come under greater fire.
“If you went from the UN taking casualties to the UN actually taking fatalities,” some nations contributing troops may “say ‘enough is enough,’ and you might see the mission start to crumble,” said Richard Gowan of the International Crisis Group.
The future of the territory is uncertain
International ceasefire efforts appear to be centered on implementing UN Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
It specified that Israeli forces would fully withdraw from Lebanon while the Lebanese army and UNIFIL — not Hezbollah — would be the exclusive armed presence in a zone about 25 kilometers (15 miles) from the border.
But the resolution was not fully implemented. Hezbollah never left the border zone, and Lebanon accuses Israel of continuing to occupy small areas of its land and carrying out frequent military overflights above its territory.
During a recent visit to Beirut, US envoy Amos Hochstein said a new agreement was needed to enforce Resolution 1701.
Israel could be trying to pressure an agreement into existence through the destruction wreaked in southern Lebanon.
Yossi Yehoshua, military correspondent for the Israeli daily Yedioth Ahronoth, wrote that the military needs to “entrench further its operational achievements” to push Hezbollah, the Lebanese government and mediating countries “to accept an end (of the war) under conditions that are convenient for Israel.”
Some Lebanese fear that means an occupation of parts of the south, 25 years after Israel ended its occupation there.
Lebanese parliamentarian Mark Daou, a critic of both Hezbollah and of Israel’s military operations in Lebanon, said he believed Israel was trying to degrade Hezbollah’s capabilities and turn the Lebanese public “against the will to resist Israeli incursions.”
Gowan, of the International Crisis Group, said one aim of Resolution 1701 was to give the Lebanese army enough credibility that it, not Hezbollah, would be seen “as the legitimate defender” in the south.
“That evaporates if they become (Israel’s) gendarmerie of southern Lebanon,” he said.